COVID vaccines – we’re not very bright sometimes

So, our strategy for COVID vaccinations is both lousy and stupid.

I quote USA TODAY: “More than 12.4 million vaccine doses have been distributed across the U.S., while nearly 2.8 million doses have been administered as of Thursday, per CDC data


We shouldn’t be handing the task of figuring out who gets vaccines to the government. We shouldn’t be doing *anything* to overcomplicate this. Whoever shows up to get a vaccines, gets vaccinated. First come, first serve.


While we may minimize deaths by trying to vaccinate the most vulnerable first, we are probably maximizing spread, because these are the people least likely to be travelling, working, etc. The most optimum situation is to just get shots in arms, as quickly as posssible. Ask people to make their best guess as to what wave they should be in, and then show up and get vaccinated.


We’re not going to hit the most optimum choice of who gets vaxxed when no matter what – I’d need weeks of playing with a computer to even approximate the right answer to that. But by trying to optimize it,  and inserting a bunch of bureaucratic bullshit, we might well hit the most pessimal case.


So, my basic message – which will get ignored – is, people running the country, every person who gets vaccinated is a minimum of one less case, and if they’re a busy, active, travelling, or interfacing with the people case, it’s like 3-300. Until we’re down to less than a million vaxes in reserve, give it to anyone who will take it.



3 Responses to “COVID vaccines – we’re not very bright sometimes”

  1. Cheryl Pullen Says:

    Given that there were 121,00 COVID deaths by Christmas in long tern care facilities out of the 343,000 total deaths in the US and the fact that 8 out of 10 COVID deaths are those over 65, I would counter that there is a reason to take things in order. I would guess that those who die are often the ones who are in the hospitals, taking a large percentage of hospital space and the attention of the health care workers. Those with other medical issues, whether heart attacks or injuries from a car wreck, may not be able to have a bed. If there were less cases involving people over 65, perhaps there would be more health care workers to administer the vaccine. The slowness of effectively getting shots to people or groups is impacted by not having a great organizational plan to begin with. Eighty year olds and older were forced to stand in a long line outside in cold weather and at dark those arriving were turned away. Are there enough people available to give the vaccines? Are some states doing better at others at getting people vaccinated quickly?

  2. sheer_panic Says:

    You’re displaying a common type of illogic that is typical to humans. Our sentimentality sometimes overrides common sense. If taking things in order is slowing down the dosing – and it is – then it is a stupid thing to do, because *every person* who gets vaxxed might well have a nursing home inhabitant in their future infection chain, and the more you slow down the process, the longer infection chains get to run. You’re arguing for something that sounds good to our emotional side, but this isn’t a time to let our emotions make the decision, because we will save far more lives by just vaccinating everyone who is willing until we’re very low on doses .

  3. sheer_panic Says:

    Your second half.. especially ‘Eighty year olds and older were forced to stand in a long line outside in cold weather and at dark those arriving were turned away. ‘ argues *for* my side.

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